TL;DR: As NDIS eligibility tightens to exclude individuals without permanent and profound impairments, the federal and state governments are establishing alternative 'foundational supports' outside the scheme. This article reviews the 'Thriving Kids' program starting in October 2026 for children under nine, the planned 'Thriving Teens' initiative, and the challenges of the transition, including the lack of like-for-like services and the implementation delay in Queensland.
A New Support Ecosystem Outside the NDIS
With the passage of the NDIS overhaul bill, the federal government is shifting how disability services are organized in Australia. The NDIS will be focused strictly on individuals with permanent and profound impairments, meaning that hundreds of thousands of people with lower-needs diagnoses will need to access alternative support systems.
To address this, NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister announced a $10 billion investment in alternative 'foundational supports' co-funded by the Commonwealth and state and territory governments. This initiative aligns with the recommendations of the 2023 independent review of the NDIS, which advised that supports must be built outside the scheme to prevent gaps in care. McAllister stated that the NDIS was never intended to support all Australians with disabilities—noting that of the 5.5 million Australians living with disability, only 670,000 to 680,000 are currently on the NDIS. The new foundational supports are intended to provide a viable path for those who do not qualify for the $50 billion NDIS.
The Thriving Kids Program and the Queensland Delay
The first phase of the foundational support system is the 'Thriving Kids' program, which is scheduled to begin rolling out in October 2026. This program is designed for children aged eight and under (under the age of nine) who have developmental delays or autism and have low to moderate support needs.
Although it has taken nearly four years to reach the launch stage—counting from the first state agreement in December 2023—the government is pushing to ensure the program is fully operational by the start of 2028. All states and territories, except Queensland, have signed their bilateral agreements and submitted their implementation plans.
This delay in Queensland has drawn criticism from the federal government. Health and Disability Minister Mark Butler called on Queensland to explain its delay, noting that the state's Premier had signed the agreement earlier this year. Butler urged Queensland to work with the Commonwealth to implement Thriving Kids and establish a broader suite of foundational supports, emphasizing that local communities expect these services to be delivered.
Planning for 'Thriving Teens' and Adult Systems
For older children and teenagers who will no longer qualify for the NDIS under the stricter 2028 eligibility rules, the federal government has proposed a 'Thriving Teens' program. Minister Butler noted that high school principals frequently highlight the need for targeted disability support programs for children older than nine.
However, because NDIS eligibility changes are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2028, the government has only 16 months to design, negotiate, and launch the Thriving Teens program and equivalent adult support systems. Butler acknowledged the scale of the task, stating, 'That is a lot of work for all governments ... we’ve got a lot of work to do between now and the end of 2027.' The federal government plans to use the lessons learned from the Thriving Kids implementation to expedite the design of these systems for older cohorts.
Concern Over Non-Equivalent Support and Care Deficits
Disability advocacy organizations remain highly sceptical of the government's ability to build these alternative systems in time. People with Disability Australia (PWDA) has warned that the proposed foundational supports do not exist today, and building them from scratch within 16 months is highly ambitious.
Megan Spindler-Smith, PWDA's acting chief executive, emphasized that state and territory governments have explicitly stated that their foundational supports will not be like-for-like replacements for the services currently provided under the NDIS. She raised concerns about how these programs will address the 94 million hours of paid care that are expected to be removed from NDIS participant plans. PWDA's interim president, Jarrod Sandell-Hay, added that many participants are at risk of being forced to exit the NDIS without a functional safety net, particularly if state-level programs are not fully established before the transition begins.
Key Takeaways
- Foundational Funding: A $10 billion fund co-funded by the Commonwealth and states will establish alternative foundational supports outside the NDIS.
- Thriving Kids Launch: Starting October 2026, the program will support children under nine with low-to-moderate autism or developmental delays.
- Queensland Holdout: Queensland is the only state or territory that has not finalized its implementation plan for the Thriving Kids program.
- Thriving Teens Proposal: A new program is being planned for children over nine, with a 16-month window to get the system operational before January 1, 2028.
- No Like-for-Like Care: States have stated that alternative programs will not offer like-for-like equivalents to NDIS funding, raising concerns about the loss of 94 million hours of paid care.
- Systemic Gaps: Advocates warn that the rapid transition timeline leaves participants vulnerable to falling between NDIS eligibility and undeveloped state services.
