TL;DR: The 2026 NDIS reforms will transition over 240,000 individuals out of the scheme over five years, shifting them toward a yet-to-be-built network of "foundational supports." However, with only one program—Thriving Kids—currently announced for children eight and under, human rights advocates and clinicians warn that older children and people with other disabilities face a dangerous support gap.
The Concept of Foundational Disability Supports
The federal government's plan to bring NDIS spending under control relies heavily on a major structural transition. Under the proposed 2026 reforms, approximately 240,000 people are projected to be removed from the NDIS within the next five years. To prevent these individuals from falling through the gaps, the government has promised to establish "foundational" disability supports.
These foundational supports are intended to operate outside of the NDIS, managed primarily by state and territory governments. They are designed to assist people with mild to moderate developmental delays or less severe disabilities who no longer meet the tightened NDIS eligibility criteria. The goal is to provide accessible, community-based therapies, physical aids, and support systems without requiring a full, individualized NDIS plan.
However, the rapid legislative timeline has created a major point of friction. The federal government is moving quickly to pass the reform bill, but the physical infrastructure for these foundational supports does not yet exist. Disability advocates, legal services, and parliamentary committees have raised intense concerns that the NDIS is being cut before these alternative systems are operational.
The Thriving Kids Program: Opportunities and Limitations
To date, the only foundational support program that the federal government has officially announced is the "Thriving Kids" initiative. This program is specifically designed to support children aged eight and under who exhibit developmental delays but do not meet the new, more stringent NDIS eligibility criteria.
The Thriving Kids program is scheduled to begin rolling out across Australia starting in October 2026. The government presents this program as a primary pathway for early intervention, ensuring that young children can still access therapy and developmental aids outside the NDIS.
While the joint committee on human rights acknowledged that the Thriving Kids program represents an alternative pathway for very young children, it also highlighted severe limitations. The program does not address the needs of older children, teenagers, or adults with other forms of physical, sensory, or intellectual disabilities. This has led to intense criticism that the program is a solitary, inadequate response to a massive, systemic transition.
Gaps in Support for Older Children and Diverse Disabilities
The statutory joint committee on human rights, led by Labor MP Zaneta Mascarenhas, issued a detailed report warning that vulnerable Australians risk falling through the gaps of this transition. The committee expressed deep concern over the lack of concrete plans for individuals who fall outside the narrow age bracket of the Thriving Kids initiative.
In its report, the committee stated: "It is unclear what other specific supports exist for children outside this age range, or for people with other types of disabilities, and the extent to which such supports are accessible and affordable depending on where people live and their other personal circumstances."
Without clear, funded alternatives, the committee warned that restricting access to the NDIS or cutting participant budgets could infringe upon an individual's right to an adequate standard of living. This risk is particularly high for people living in regional or remote areas of Australia, where community-based health infrastructure is already severely limited.
From Structured Coordination to Individual Responsibility
The transition away from NDIS funding also highlights a broader shift in how disability services are navigated in Australia. Dr. Alexis Berry, the Vice President of the Australian Association of Developmental Disability Medicine, has noted that the introduction of the NDIS originally replaced a more structured, coordinated public health system.
Previously, people with intellectual or developmental disabilities were typically registered with their local government services. These services provided a centralized "one-stop shop" where a dedicated case manager was assigned to coordinate all of the individual's medical, educational, and social needs.
Under the NDIS, however, the system has become highly individualistic. Dr. Berry explains that it is now entirely up to the individual and their family to navigate the complex web of services, with no dedicated coordinator provided to guide them. As the 2026 reforms restrict NDIS access further and push participants toward uncoordinated foundational supports, families will face an even greater administrative and emotional burden. Without structured support coordination, there is a severe risk that the most vulnerable individuals will be left entirely without access to essential care.
Key Takeaways
- Foundational Support Gap: While 240,000 people are expected to transition off the NDIS, the necessary state-based foundational supports have not yet been built.
- Thriving Kids Limits: The only program announced so far is the Thriving Kids initiative, starting in October 2026, which is strictly limited to children eight and under.
- Human Rights Warning: The joint committee on human rights warned of severe gaps for older children and adults with other disabilities, noting that alternative supports are neither defined nor guaranteed.
- Navigational Burden: The shift to an individualistic support system places a heavy coordination burden on families, making early intervention and consistent care harder to access.
